Characterization of Excess Death in the Mexican State of Guanajuato, During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Ecological Study

Elia Lara-Lona¹, Christian Andrés Díaz-Chávez², Gilberto Flores -Vargas³, Nicolás Padilla-Raygoza^3*, Efraín Navarro-Olivos³, Francisco Javier Martínez-García² and Daniel Alberto Díaz-Martínez⁴

¹Department of Medicine and Nutrition, Division of Health Sciences, Campus Leon, University of Guanajuato Bvld Puente Milenio 1001Fracción del Predio San Carlos, León, Guanajuato, México CP37670.

²Department of Statistics, General Directorate of Planning and Development, Institute of Public Health of the State of Guanajuato, Camino Antiguo a Marfil #12, Marfil, Guanajuato, Gto. Mexico, CP  36250

³Department of Research and Technological Development, Teaching and Research Directorate, Institute of Public Health from Guanajuato State. Victor Cervera Pacheco 14 Primer Piso Plaza Santa Fé Guanajuato, Gto. Mexico CP36250

⁴Directorate of Health Services, Institute of Public Health from Guanajuato State, Tamazuca 4, Guanajuato, Gto México CP36000

Corresponding Author E-mail: npadillar@guanajuato.gob.mx

Abstract: Due to SARS-CoV-2 infection, which causes COVID-19, the total number of annual deaths increased in Mexico during 2020. To analyze the mortality in the Mexican state of Guanajuato from 2015 to 2020, we designed an ecological study. We used the registries of deaths in the vital statistics database of the Epidemiological and Statistical Subsystem of Deaths that includes age, sex, cause of death, epidemiological week of death as variables. Mortality Rates, Rates Ratios, Difference of Rates, Adjusted Mortality Rates, Adjusted Rates Ratios, and Difference of Rates were computed as part of the statistical analysis. To show the patterns regarding deaths in Guanajuato Sate from 2015 to 2020, we also calculated some dendrograms. The difference between the number of deaths in 2020 and 2019 is 13,286, while, in previous years, the differences were under 3000. The percentage of males that died (59.30%) shows an increment in 2020. Also, the mean age increased in 2020 (62.9 ± 22.56). The gender ratio of deaths (males/females) is greater than 1 in all the age groups except for those over 80. The age and geographic patterns of deaths changed in 2020. The 3rd cause of death among the top 10 leading causes is COVID-19. It has been detected an excess of mortality in 2020, although the integrity of the record is questionable since COVID-19 is an emergent disease. The highest effect is observed among males and older people. This situation has changed the age and geographic patterns of death in Guanajuato state. The long-term consequences on society remain to be observed.

Keywords: Annual mortality; Adjusted mortality rates; Excess of deaths; Mortality rates; Population

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